After a sharp correction of 7.4% witnessed over past two days on reports of swine flu outbreak in Mexico and US, soyabean May futures on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) once again bounced back on Tuesday. The market has discounted the news of swine flu and prices regained mainly on concerns over Argentina’s harvest and strong demand from China.
Soyabean May contracts rose to Rs 2,600 level on Tuesday after touching a low of Rs 2,594 per quintal. Earlier, the contract rose to Rs 2,800 per quintal, up by almost 20% in April month. Spot prices in Indore market also gained Rs 2 at Rs 2607 per quintal on Tuesday.
On Monday, NCDEX May soyabean futures hit lower limit of 4% in tandem with overseas market on fear of lower demand of soy meal, feed demand in near future due to outbreak of swine flu in Mexico.
A 10% special margin, which was levied on long side on all soyabean contracts, also weighed on the markets. Swine flu outbreak will impact on meat and livestock feed demand, a local trader said.
The World Health Organization has raised its six-stage pandemic alert level to 4 from 3 because of evidence of increased human-to-human contact, as swine flu is spreading across North America. Hog and pork-belly futures plunged 3 cents a pound.
“Soyabean prices are expected to rise in near term on due to concerns over Argentina’s harvest and strong demand from China,” an analyst with Angel Commodities said.
For medium term and long term, it is bullish on account of lower global soybean production estimates to 218.8 million tonnes. And higher export demand of Indian soyameal is expected from Asian and Middle East countries in coming year owing tight supply in global market, he said.
“We feel the fall in prices could be limited. Market sentiments could take it down further but now the shorts if any needs to be covered. The undertone for the commodity looks fairly bullish and this fall has opened an opportunity to go long,” analyst with Kotak Commodities said.
China is likely to import 3.83 million tonnes of soybean in April and 3.18 million tonnes in May according to Chinese government estimates issued last week. (source: fianancial express)
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Margins fail to dent sugar futures
Strong fundamentals and good summer demand once again pushed up the sugar futures market on Monday after a short correction last week and may continue to rise over the next few days, despite the imposition of special margins levied by Forward Markets Commission (FMC) to curb the excess speculation in the commodity.
Despite the facts that government’s efforts to control the domestic prices by imposing numbers of measures including approval of duty free imports of white sugar, imposition of stock limit, additional release of free sale quota and special margins on long positions of all running contracts, futures prices on the National commodity & derivatives exchange (NCDEX) on Monday increased by 2% over the previous day.
NCDEX June contracts jumped up by Rs 46 to finish at Rs 2,341 per quintal over previous day on continued support even after the report that NCDEX and MCX imposed special margin of 5% on sugar futures to curb volatility in prices. With these special margins, the total margins on sugar contracts would be 17.5% including an initial margin of 7.5% and special margins of 10%.
“I don’t think special margins will have any practical impact on the futures market as spot prices in North India are still ruling higher by Rs 100 over futures prices,” a leading trader of Kolhapur said.
“Consideration the good summer season demand, we don’t expect much downside in prices, despite the increase in overall supply,” he said.
Spot prices of sugar medium grade in North India are already ruling high at Rs 2,445 per quintal in Muzaffarnagar and Rs 2,415 in Delhi market. In Navi Mumbai, medium grade prices were ruling at Rs 2,280-2,370 per quintal.
The FMC was recently asked by the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) to watch the movement in sugar prices in the futures market and take necessary steps to curb excessive speculation.
In the next round of measures, the government may ask sugar mills to sell some stocks directly to co-operatives like Kendriya Bhandars at mutually agreed price. Also the regulator may even increase special margins by another 5% over the next few days. The government may also consider the proposal to convert excess (unsold) April free quota into levy sugar.
“From the medium term perspective, fundamentals for sugar remain strong due to lower production estimates in the India as well as rising deficit in global markets. World sugar demand is expected to outstrip supply and build a larger deficit in 2009-10," an analyst with Angel Commodities said. (source: Financial express)
Despite the facts that government’s efforts to control the domestic prices by imposing numbers of measures including approval of duty free imports of white sugar, imposition of stock limit, additional release of free sale quota and special margins on long positions of all running contracts, futures prices on the National commodity & derivatives exchange (NCDEX) on Monday increased by 2% over the previous day.
NCDEX June contracts jumped up by Rs 46 to finish at Rs 2,341 per quintal over previous day on continued support even after the report that NCDEX and MCX imposed special margin of 5% on sugar futures to curb volatility in prices. With these special margins, the total margins on sugar contracts would be 17.5% including an initial margin of 7.5% and special margins of 10%.
“I don’t think special margins will have any practical impact on the futures market as spot prices in North India are still ruling higher by Rs 100 over futures prices,” a leading trader of Kolhapur said.
“Consideration the good summer season demand, we don’t expect much downside in prices, despite the increase in overall supply,” he said.
Spot prices of sugar medium grade in North India are already ruling high at Rs 2,445 per quintal in Muzaffarnagar and Rs 2,415 in Delhi market. In Navi Mumbai, medium grade prices were ruling at Rs 2,280-2,370 per quintal.
The FMC was recently asked by the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) to watch the movement in sugar prices in the futures market and take necessary steps to curb excessive speculation.
In the next round of measures, the government may ask sugar mills to sell some stocks directly to co-operatives like Kendriya Bhandars at mutually agreed price. Also the regulator may even increase special margins by another 5% over the next few days. The government may also consider the proposal to convert excess (unsold) April free quota into levy sugar.
“From the medium term perspective, fundamentals for sugar remain strong due to lower production estimates in the India as well as rising deficit in global markets. World sugar demand is expected to outstrip supply and build a larger deficit in 2009-10," an analyst with Angel Commodities said. (source: Financial express)
Gold imports regain after brief lull
Mumbai: Finally, import of gold into India, the world’s largest buyer, has re-started in full swing in April, after a gap of two months because of higher global prices and dull demand for gold jewellery in the country.
Traders expect gold import to reach about 40 tonne this month mainly to cash in on the gold rush for Akshaya Tritiya day which falls on April 27 along with current wedding season.
“I think banks and government agencies together may import nearly 40 tonne of gold this month,” Bhargav Vaidya, a leading gold expert told FE.
Bullion dealers have started importing in small quantities and expect a revival of demand for gold jewellery during wedding season. Apart from jewellery, gold coins of various denominations (10 gm, 8 gm, 5 gm, 2.5 gm and 1 gm) are in good demand this month, sources said.
Gold import parcels of about 25 tonne have been landed till date and may add another 10-15 tonne by month end, sources said.
The country has been importing less gold recently as prices remain volatile amid the global financial crisis.
On the other hand, overall exports of gems and jewellery sector witnessed a decline of 18.88% in second half of financial year 2008-09 owing to the slowdown in the USA.
“The stock markets across the globe remained in better form on expectations of an early rebound in economic slowdown. Gold prices have been following a common pattern throughout this bull ish market. It rises for a six-to-nine-month period and then consolidates for a year to 18 months, before its next rise. These movements are independent of the currency in which prices are measured,” a local bullion dealer said.
Spot gold in world market may trade in the range of $870-$900 a troy ounce and prices in local markets will continue hovering in the range of Rs 14,500 to 15,000 per 10 grams.
“Local prices will remain firm over the next few days as demand for gold coins and jewellery may continue for some time due to current wedding season and Akshaye Trithya,” a local dealer said.
“After making a double-bottom around $864 gold has turned upside and is currently forming a bullish price pattern called inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. Currently, the price is flirting around the neckline of the pattern on MCX rests around Rs14, 500. Once gold breaches this neckline, it is likely to test Rs 14,800 to Rs 15,000 on upside,” said a technical analyst with Sharekhan. (source: financial express)
Traders expect gold import to reach about 40 tonne this month mainly to cash in on the gold rush for Akshaya Tritiya day which falls on April 27 along with current wedding season.
“I think banks and government agencies together may import nearly 40 tonne of gold this month,” Bhargav Vaidya, a leading gold expert told FE.
Bullion dealers have started importing in small quantities and expect a revival of demand for gold jewellery during wedding season. Apart from jewellery, gold coins of various denominations (10 gm, 8 gm, 5 gm, 2.5 gm and 1 gm) are in good demand this month, sources said.
Gold import parcels of about 25 tonne have been landed till date and may add another 10-15 tonne by month end, sources said.
The country has been importing less gold recently as prices remain volatile amid the global financial crisis.
On the other hand, overall exports of gems and jewellery sector witnessed a decline of 18.88% in second half of financial year 2008-09 owing to the slowdown in the USA.
“The stock markets across the globe remained in better form on expectations of an early rebound in economic slowdown. Gold prices have been following a common pattern throughout this bull ish market. It rises for a six-to-nine-month period and then consolidates for a year to 18 months, before its next rise. These movements are independent of the currency in which prices are measured,” a local bullion dealer said.
Spot gold in world market may trade in the range of $870-$900 a troy ounce and prices in local markets will continue hovering in the range of Rs 14,500 to 15,000 per 10 grams.
“Local prices will remain firm over the next few days as demand for gold coins and jewellery may continue for some time due to current wedding season and Akshaye Trithya,” a local dealer said.
“After making a double-bottom around $864 gold has turned upside and is currently forming a bullish price pattern called inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. Currently, the price is flirting around the neckline of the pattern on MCX rests around Rs14, 500. Once gold breaches this neckline, it is likely to test Rs 14,800 to Rs 15,000 on upside,” said a technical analyst with Sharekhan. (source: financial express)
Friday, April 17, 2009
Gur turns bitter for consumers as prices go up 25%
After a long rally witnessed in sugar, rising prices of gur have now turned bitter for consumers on the eve of general election in the country.
Gur spot prices at the major terminal markets including Muzaffarnagar and Hapur mandis have increased sharply by nearly 25% during the current month.
It can be noted that local prices of sugar also increased to Rs 2,600 per quintal this week from Rs 2,200 a quintal, despite release of higher free sale quota for the month.
Spot prices of gur in Muzaffarnagar have increased by nearly Rs 200 to trade at Rs 1,050 per 40 kg on Thursday on reports of reduced stocks in Uttar Pradesh and expected lower output of gur in the country.
Spot price of Gur Balti in Hapur market also increased to Rs 1,030 per 40 kg on increased offtake. NCDEX gur July futures also jumped up by nearly Rs 175, or 18%, to trade at Rs 1,134 per 40 kg on Wednesday over the beginning of the month.
“Prices have touched record levels during the month mainly on reports of cane shortage, reduced stocks and expected lower output this season. Total output is expected to be lowered by 30-40% in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra,” Pankaj Agrawal, a leading trader of Muzaffarnagar said.
Overall output of gur in the country is estimated lower around 8.5 to 9 million tonne for the current season from 14-15 million tonne last season. Total stock is expected to be around 10 lakh bags (each 40 kg) in Uttar Pradesh.
“There is good demand for black gur from Gujarat as it is used for making country liquor. Normally, demand for country liquor increases during the general election time. Some traders in Gujarat are holding large stocks of yellow and black gur ahead of election as there is no stock limit in gur,” a local trader said.
“Prices may remain higher in the next few days on short supply. Total output in south India is believed to be good but inflows of new gur from south are expected to begin in early June,” he said. (Source: Financial Express)
Gur spot prices at the major terminal markets including Muzaffarnagar and Hapur mandis have increased sharply by nearly 25% during the current month.
It can be noted that local prices of sugar also increased to Rs 2,600 per quintal this week from Rs 2,200 a quintal, despite release of higher free sale quota for the month.
Spot prices of gur in Muzaffarnagar have increased by nearly Rs 200 to trade at Rs 1,050 per 40 kg on Thursday on reports of reduced stocks in Uttar Pradesh and expected lower output of gur in the country.
Spot price of Gur Balti in Hapur market also increased to Rs 1,030 per 40 kg on increased offtake. NCDEX gur July futures also jumped up by nearly Rs 175, or 18%, to trade at Rs 1,134 per 40 kg on Wednesday over the beginning of the month.
“Prices have touched record levels during the month mainly on reports of cane shortage, reduced stocks and expected lower output this season. Total output is expected to be lowered by 30-40% in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra,” Pankaj Agrawal, a leading trader of Muzaffarnagar said.
Overall output of gur in the country is estimated lower around 8.5 to 9 million tonne for the current season from 14-15 million tonne last season. Total stock is expected to be around 10 lakh bags (each 40 kg) in Uttar Pradesh.
“There is good demand for black gur from Gujarat as it is used for making country liquor. Normally, demand for country liquor increases during the general election time. Some traders in Gujarat are holding large stocks of yellow and black gur ahead of election as there is no stock limit in gur,” a local trader said.
“Prices may remain higher in the next few days on short supply. Total output in south India is believed to be good but inflows of new gur from south are expected to begin in early June,” he said. (Source: Financial Express)
Anti-dumping inquiry into VSF import
The government has initiated anti-dumping investigation concerning import of Viscose Staple Fibre (VSF) excluding bamboo fibre originating in or exporting from China and Indonesia.
The Association of Man Made Fibre industry of India (AMFII) has filed an application before the designated authority last month and has requested for initiation of anti-dumping investigation and levy of anti-dumping duties. The period of investigation for the purpose of the present investigation is July 1 to December 31, 2008. Grasim Industries Ltd (GIL) is the sole producer of such product in India and has provided injury and costing information.
“Our association has filed an application before the designated authority and requested for the initiation of anti dumping investigation as the industry was suffering from such imports. There is sufficient evidence to justify initiation of an anti-dumping investigation in terms of AD rules,” Vijay Kaul, chief marketing officer, Grasim Industries Ltd (GIL) told FE.
The domestic industry had to reduce its VSF prices by nearly 25% during FY2009 due to dumping of such material from China and Indonesia, he added. The applicant has claimed that there is no other producer in India. As per the evidence available on record, production of GIL accounts for a major proportion of the domestic production. The production of Grasim is more than 50% of Indian production. The countries involved in the present investigation are People’s Republic of China and Indonesia (referred to as subject countries).
There is, prima facie, evidence that the normal value of the subject goods in the subject countries is significantly higher than the ex-factory export price indicating, prima facie, that the subject goods are being dumped by exporters from the subject countries. Parameters like increase in the absolute volume of imports and increase in the market share of imports from the subject countries in total imports, significant decline in the domestic selling price indicate that the industry has suffered material injury on account of dumping of subject goods from subject countries. (Source: Financial Express)
The Association of Man Made Fibre industry of India (AMFII) has filed an application before the designated authority last month and has requested for initiation of anti-dumping investigation and levy of anti-dumping duties. The period of investigation for the purpose of the present investigation is July 1 to December 31, 2008. Grasim Industries Ltd (GIL) is the sole producer of such product in India and has provided injury and costing information.
“Our association has filed an application before the designated authority and requested for the initiation of anti dumping investigation as the industry was suffering from such imports. There is sufficient evidence to justify initiation of an anti-dumping investigation in terms of AD rules,” Vijay Kaul, chief marketing officer, Grasim Industries Ltd (GIL) told FE.
The domestic industry had to reduce its VSF prices by nearly 25% during FY2009 due to dumping of such material from China and Indonesia, he added. The applicant has claimed that there is no other producer in India. As per the evidence available on record, production of GIL accounts for a major proportion of the domestic production. The production of Grasim is more than 50% of Indian production. The countries involved in the present investigation are People’s Republic of China and Indonesia (referred to as subject countries).
There is, prima facie, evidence that the normal value of the subject goods in the subject countries is significantly higher than the ex-factory export price indicating, prima facie, that the subject goods are being dumped by exporters from the subject countries. Parameters like increase in the absolute volume of imports and increase in the market share of imports from the subject countries in total imports, significant decline in the domestic selling price indicate that the industry has suffered material injury on account of dumping of subject goods from subject countries. (Source: Financial Express)
GJF to issue smart card for jewellers soon
All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation’s (GJF) will soon issue smart cards for the jewellers and their staff with the objective of authenticating jewellers’ status and facilitating hassle-free movement across India.
GJF is a national trade federation for the promotion and growth of trade in gems and jewellery across the country. “The card is basically for jewellers and their staffs who are our members and it will be launched by year-end. We will have to get government approval for that,” C Vinod Hayagriv, chairman, GJF told FE.
The card is to be produced when challenged by government authorities. The card is to be recognised by the government as a valid proof and identification. It aims to create transparency and accountability for the industry. “We are intending to issue about 50,000-1 lakh cards in the near future,” he said.
The card will have customised design and security measures incorporated so that it is not easily copied. The card will hold up to 64kb of data. Complete details of a jeweller will be incorporated in the card, he said.
“In times of recession, it is important we take steps to protect our industry by improving productivity and enhancing transparency and ethical profitability,” he said. Similarly, the federation will shortly expand its trustmark initiative to other major cities. The trustmark is an assurance to a customer of the commitment of the jeweller for his quality and best business practice. The ‘Trustmark’ logo will have three categories for a jeweller to participate. The federation also plans to design special GJF coins available starting from 2 grams. (source: Financial Express)
GJF is a national trade federation for the promotion and growth of trade in gems and jewellery across the country. “The card is basically for jewellers and their staffs who are our members and it will be launched by year-end. We will have to get government approval for that,” C Vinod Hayagriv, chairman, GJF told FE.
The card is to be produced when challenged by government authorities. The card is to be recognised by the government as a valid proof and identification. It aims to create transparency and accountability for the industry. “We are intending to issue about 50,000-1 lakh cards in the near future,” he said.
The card will have customised design and security measures incorporated so that it is not easily copied. The card will hold up to 64kb of data. Complete details of a jeweller will be incorporated in the card, he said.
“In times of recession, it is important we take steps to protect our industry by improving productivity and enhancing transparency and ethical profitability,” he said. Similarly, the federation will shortly expand its trustmark initiative to other major cities. The trustmark is an assurance to a customer of the commitment of the jeweller for his quality and best business practice. The ‘Trustmark’ logo will have three categories for a jeweller to participate. The federation also plans to design special GJF coins available starting from 2 grams. (source: Financial Express)
Higher supply fails to curb sugar prices, spot up 7.5%
Increased supply for summer by the government and imposition of stocks limit for traders announced last months have failed to curb spot prices of sugar in the physical market over the past four days.
Improved summer season demand coupled with lower crop estimates kept sugar prices firm at the major terminal markets including Delhi, Muzaffar Nagar, Mumbai and Kolhapur, traders said.
Sugar prices of medium grade in Delhi, Muzaffar Nagar and Kolhapur have increased by Rs 160-165, or 7.5%, to trade at Rs 2,345, Rs 2,335 and Rs 2,170 per quintal, respectively.
On the futures trading platform, NCDEX April contracts (Kolhapur delivery) also rose by 4% to trade at Rs 2,171 on Monday over last week.
“Trading interest has shifted from April to May contracts,” a trader said.
Spot prices in Mumbai also gained significantly and crossed Rs 2,300 per quintal on continued buying from bulk consumers.
“Overall monthly supply of nearly 19 lakh tonne for the current month is enough to cater the domestic demand, Mukesh Kuvadia, secretary, Bombay Sugar Merchants' Association (BSMA) said.
Overall fundamentals remain supportive for the prices with lower output forecast in India and a global deficit of more than 43 lakh tonne, up from a previous projection of 36 lakh tonne, sources said.
“Sugar imports, both raw and white even at zero-duty, have become unviable in the present scenario as international prices are ruling high. Thus, despite government's effort to ease import norms, we don't expect imports to take place in the coming weeks,” an analyst with Angel Broking said.
From the medium term perspective, fundamentals for sugar remain strong due to lower production estimates for India as well as rising deficit in global markets. Global sugar demand is expected to outstrip supply and build a larger deficit in 2009-10, she said.
Sugar production would touch 150 lakh tonne for season 2008-09, according to SL Jain, director general, ISMA.
“Prices closed above its five days SMA, 20 days SMA and 65 days SMA indicating an up trend. RSI is at 70.01 and is currently moving in the overbought region,” technical analyst said. (Source: Financial Express)
Improved summer season demand coupled with lower crop estimates kept sugar prices firm at the major terminal markets including Delhi, Muzaffar Nagar, Mumbai and Kolhapur, traders said.
Sugar prices of medium grade in Delhi, Muzaffar Nagar and Kolhapur have increased by Rs 160-165, or 7.5%, to trade at Rs 2,345, Rs 2,335 and Rs 2,170 per quintal, respectively.
On the futures trading platform, NCDEX April contracts (Kolhapur delivery) also rose by 4% to trade at Rs 2,171 on Monday over last week.
“Trading interest has shifted from April to May contracts,” a trader said.
Spot prices in Mumbai also gained significantly and crossed Rs 2,300 per quintal on continued buying from bulk consumers.
“Overall monthly supply of nearly 19 lakh tonne for the current month is enough to cater the domestic demand, Mukesh Kuvadia, secretary, Bombay Sugar Merchants' Association (BSMA) said.
Overall fundamentals remain supportive for the prices with lower output forecast in India and a global deficit of more than 43 lakh tonne, up from a previous projection of 36 lakh tonne, sources said.
“Sugar imports, both raw and white even at zero-duty, have become unviable in the present scenario as international prices are ruling high. Thus, despite government's effort to ease import norms, we don't expect imports to take place in the coming weeks,” an analyst with Angel Broking said.
From the medium term perspective, fundamentals for sugar remain strong due to lower production estimates for India as well as rising deficit in global markets. Global sugar demand is expected to outstrip supply and build a larger deficit in 2009-10, she said.
Sugar production would touch 150 lakh tonne for season 2008-09, according to SL Jain, director general, ISMA.
“Prices closed above its five days SMA, 20 days SMA and 65 days SMA indicating an up trend. RSI is at 70.01 and is currently moving in the overbought region,” technical analyst said. (Source: Financial Express)
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