Mumbai: Finally, import of gold into India, the world’s largest buyer, has re-started in full swing in April, after a gap of two months because of higher global prices and dull demand for gold jewellery in the country.
Traders expect gold import to reach about 40 tonne this month mainly to cash in on the gold rush for Akshaya Tritiya day which falls on April 27 along with current wedding season.
“I think banks and government agencies together may import nearly 40 tonne of gold this month,” Bhargav Vaidya, a leading gold expert told FE.
Bullion dealers have started importing in small quantities and expect a revival of demand for gold jewellery during wedding season. Apart from jewellery, gold coins of various denominations (10 gm, 8 gm, 5 gm, 2.5 gm and 1 gm) are in good demand this month, sources said.
Gold import parcels of about 25 tonne have been landed till date and may add another 10-15 tonne by month end, sources said.
The country has been importing less gold recently as prices remain volatile amid the global financial crisis.
On the other hand, overall exports of gems and jewellery sector witnessed a decline of 18.88% in second half of financial year 2008-09 owing to the slowdown in the USA.
“The stock markets across the globe remained in better form on expectations of an early rebound in economic slowdown. Gold prices have been following a common pattern throughout this bull ish market. It rises for a six-to-nine-month period and then consolidates for a year to 18 months, before its next rise. These movements are independent of the currency in which prices are measured,” a local bullion dealer said.
Spot gold in world market may trade in the range of $870-$900 a troy ounce and prices in local markets will continue hovering in the range of Rs 14,500 to 15,000 per 10 grams.
“Local prices will remain firm over the next few days as demand for gold coins and jewellery may continue for some time due to current wedding season and Akshaye Trithya,” a local dealer said.
“After making a double-bottom around $864 gold has turned upside and is currently forming a bullish price pattern called inverse head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. Currently, the price is flirting around the neckline of the pattern on MCX rests around Rs14, 500. Once gold breaches this neckline, it is likely to test Rs 14,800 to Rs 15,000 on upside,” said a technical analyst with Sharekhan. (source: financial express)
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
GJF to issue smart card for jewellers soon
All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation’s (GJF) will soon issue smart cards for the jewellers and their staff with the objective of authenticating jewellers’ status and facilitating hassle-free movement across India.
GJF is a national trade federation for the promotion and growth of trade in gems and jewellery across the country. “The card is basically for jewellers and their staffs who are our members and it will be launched by year-end. We will have to get government approval for that,” C Vinod Hayagriv, chairman, GJF told FE.
The card is to be produced when challenged by government authorities. The card is to be recognised by the government as a valid proof and identification. It aims to create transparency and accountability for the industry. “We are intending to issue about 50,000-1 lakh cards in the near future,” he said.
The card will have customised design and security measures incorporated so that it is not easily copied. The card will hold up to 64kb of data. Complete details of a jeweller will be incorporated in the card, he said.
“In times of recession, it is important we take steps to protect our industry by improving productivity and enhancing transparency and ethical profitability,” he said. Similarly, the federation will shortly expand its trustmark initiative to other major cities. The trustmark is an assurance to a customer of the commitment of the jeweller for his quality and best business practice. The ‘Trustmark’ logo will have three categories for a jeweller to participate. The federation also plans to design special GJF coins available starting from 2 grams. (source: Financial Express)
GJF is a national trade federation for the promotion and growth of trade in gems and jewellery across the country. “The card is basically for jewellers and their staffs who are our members and it will be launched by year-end. We will have to get government approval for that,” C Vinod Hayagriv, chairman, GJF told FE.
The card is to be produced when challenged by government authorities. The card is to be recognised by the government as a valid proof and identification. It aims to create transparency and accountability for the industry. “We are intending to issue about 50,000-1 lakh cards in the near future,” he said.
The card will have customised design and security measures incorporated so that it is not easily copied. The card will hold up to 64kb of data. Complete details of a jeweller will be incorporated in the card, he said.
“In times of recession, it is important we take steps to protect our industry by improving productivity and enhancing transparency and ethical profitability,” he said. Similarly, the federation will shortly expand its trustmark initiative to other major cities. The trustmark is an assurance to a customer of the commitment of the jeweller for his quality and best business practice. The ‘Trustmark’ logo will have three categories for a jeweller to participate. The federation also plans to design special GJF coins available starting from 2 grams. (source: Financial Express)
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Hold gold: mantra for investors
Gold investment has traditionally been the preserve of a minority of investors buying it on futures exchanges or through bullion dealers. There has been an unprecedented surge in investment demand. Everybody spoke about a gold rush last week when the yellow metal jumped back above $1,000 an ounce on last Monday – not far off last spring’s record of $1,033 – before slipping back on profit taking, raising its gains to 45% since October.
Gold usually moves inversely to the dollar, but it has gained around 13% this year, despite the greenback rising by around 10% against the euro. It has hit new records in a range of currencies, including pounds, euros and Canadian and Australian dollars.
During the first two months of 2009, gold London spot rose to $989.75 at the end of February, up by 14% from $869 in early January 2009. Over the year as a whole, the gold price averaged $872, up 25% from $695 in 2007.
During the current month, gold prices reached near the psychological Rs 16,000-mark, attracting more scrap sales, as consumers chose to cash in on this rally while imports continued to slacken to zero.
Global retail investment in quarter four of 2008 jumped by almost 400%, with retail investors in France becoming net buyers of gold for the first time in 25 years. Indian consumers at the retail level invested an all time high figure of Rs 88,056 crore on gold in the calendar year 2008, as opposed to Rs 71,761 crore in 2007 - an increase of 22.7% over the previous year and 71% of this value went towards the purchasing of gold jewellery and 29% was towards investment products like gold bars and coins.
“Gold will not lose its value. I think investors should keep themselves open to acquire gold at every dip. A year from now we could see these prices as a bargain,” Prakash Jain, a bullion trader said.
As shares on stock markets around the world lost an estimated $14 trillion in value, identifiable investment demand for gold, which incorporates exchange traded funds (ETFs) and bars and coins, was 64% higher in 2008 than in 2007, equivalent to an additional inflow of $15 billion. A major shift was witnessed in gold buying from traditional jewellery to coins and bars.
“The global recession and financial crisis will hit the entire investment basket. Gold will be affected in its dual role of currency as well as commodity. Commodities across the board have fallen by more than 50% from highs. Gold would be affected to a lesser extent due to its characteristic of being a safe investment and a hedge against inflation. The physical demand for jewellery would reduce due to the current global economic conditions. Reduction in oil prices would reduce investment surplus for oil exporting nations, this would drive away another important investment group from gold,” Bhargava Vaidya, a leading bullion analyst said.
Inflows into gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) have continued to surge this year. The gold holdings of the world’s largest gold trust, the New York-listed SPDR Gold Trust has absorbed 10% of worldwide annual mine output in the past seven weeks.
At this rate, 2009’s ETF purchases would be enough to surpass the tonnage of jewellery bought last year, replacing jewellery as the top source of demand. It is now the world’s seventh-largest gold bullion holder, behind a handful of central banks.
“Gold is expected to develop a stronger trading link to the currency world as risk premia on money stabilise. Then, as the US fiscal and trade deficits get un-manageable, the weaker dollar could then help gold break through $1200/oz,” Gnanasekar Thaigrajan, director, Commtrendz Research said.
Gold jewellery demand globally fell by 6% to reach at 538.9 tonne in quarter four of 2008 from 570.3 tonne in the same quarter of 2007.
Gold in the year 2008 outperformed most of the asset classes and has provided a 32% return on investment in rupee terms for the year 2008, according to latest report of the World Gold Council (WGC).
The compounded annualised returns provided by gold in the last five years ending 2008 have been 19.54%. (10 year figure is 13.63%), the WGC report said. (source: financial express)
Gold usually moves inversely to the dollar, but it has gained around 13% this year, despite the greenback rising by around 10% against the euro. It has hit new records in a range of currencies, including pounds, euros and Canadian and Australian dollars.
During the first two months of 2009, gold London spot rose to $989.75 at the end of February, up by 14% from $869 in early January 2009. Over the year as a whole, the gold price averaged $872, up 25% from $695 in 2007.
During the current month, gold prices reached near the psychological Rs 16,000-mark, attracting more scrap sales, as consumers chose to cash in on this rally while imports continued to slacken to zero.
Global retail investment in quarter four of 2008 jumped by almost 400%, with retail investors in France becoming net buyers of gold for the first time in 25 years. Indian consumers at the retail level invested an all time high figure of Rs 88,056 crore on gold in the calendar year 2008, as opposed to Rs 71,761 crore in 2007 - an increase of 22.7% over the previous year and 71% of this value went towards the purchasing of gold jewellery and 29% was towards investment products like gold bars and coins.
“Gold will not lose its value. I think investors should keep themselves open to acquire gold at every dip. A year from now we could see these prices as a bargain,” Prakash Jain, a bullion trader said.
As shares on stock markets around the world lost an estimated $14 trillion in value, identifiable investment demand for gold, which incorporates exchange traded funds (ETFs) and bars and coins, was 64% higher in 2008 than in 2007, equivalent to an additional inflow of $15 billion. A major shift was witnessed in gold buying from traditional jewellery to coins and bars.
“The global recession and financial crisis will hit the entire investment basket. Gold will be affected in its dual role of currency as well as commodity. Commodities across the board have fallen by more than 50% from highs. Gold would be affected to a lesser extent due to its characteristic of being a safe investment and a hedge against inflation. The physical demand for jewellery would reduce due to the current global economic conditions. Reduction in oil prices would reduce investment surplus for oil exporting nations, this would drive away another important investment group from gold,” Bhargava Vaidya, a leading bullion analyst said.
Inflows into gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) have continued to surge this year. The gold holdings of the world’s largest gold trust, the New York-listed SPDR Gold Trust has absorbed 10% of worldwide annual mine output in the past seven weeks.
At this rate, 2009’s ETF purchases would be enough to surpass the tonnage of jewellery bought last year, replacing jewellery as the top source of demand. It is now the world’s seventh-largest gold bullion holder, behind a handful of central banks.
“Gold is expected to develop a stronger trading link to the currency world as risk premia on money stabilise. Then, as the US fiscal and trade deficits get un-manageable, the weaker dollar could then help gold break through $1200/oz,” Gnanasekar Thaigrajan, director, Commtrendz Research said.
Gold jewellery demand globally fell by 6% to reach at 538.9 tonne in quarter four of 2008 from 570.3 tonne in the same quarter of 2007.
Gold in the year 2008 outperformed most of the asset classes and has provided a 32% return on investment in rupee terms for the year 2008, according to latest report of the World Gold Council (WGC).
The compounded annualised returns provided by gold in the last five years ending 2008 have been 19.54%. (10 year figure is 13.63%), the WGC report said. (source: financial express)
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Silver futures crosses 23,000-level, crude oil futures drops 6%
Mumbai: Base metals futures prices fell marginally on the week ended on Friday on rising inventories amid slow demand. Gold futures continued to climb last week mainly on buying support from retail investors as the global economic scenario continues to remain grim.
Silver prices also surged in line with gold. Silver March on Friday crossed the Rs 23,000 per kg mark mainly on strong buying support.
On the other hand, crude oil prices continued to remain lower on lack of renewed buying interest.
MCX copper February 2009 contracts continued to rule weak and settled at 5.24% lower at Rs 157.35 per kg on Friday from Rs 166.05 over the previous week. "Support is seen at Rs 155 per kg," a local analyst said.
Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses have gained 2,950 tonne to remain at 5,28,250 tonne. Global copper market saw a surplus of 3.29 lakh tonne in 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report said. LME Copper cash was quoted at $3,254.75 per tonne last week.
MCX crude oil March 2009 contracts once again slipped below the Rs 2,000-level and ended lower at Rs 1,957 per barrel on Friday over the previous week's close of Rs 2,080 per barrel, down by 5.91%. WTI crude oil price in NYMEX hovered at around $39.88 per barrel.
Even though inventory data showed a drop in oil stocks, the bearish picture for crude oil consumption is still in place, an analyst with Angel Broking said.
Crude oil prices may trade sideways as demand is unlikely to increase in the medium term, a trader said.
MCX gold April 2009 contracts finished higher at Rs 15,661 per 10 gram on Friday over the previous week's Rs 14,638 per 10 gram, up by 7% as investors have flocked to gold, the safe haven asset. In the London market, spot prices touched $998.57 an ounce.
MCX silver March 2009 contracts were traded higher at Rs 22,970 per kg on Friday from Rs 21,818 over the previous week, up by 5.28%.
The white metals crossed the Rs 23,000 per kg level on Friday mainly on sustained buying support. (source: Financial Express)
Silver prices also surged in line with gold. Silver March on Friday crossed the Rs 23,000 per kg mark mainly on strong buying support.
On the other hand, crude oil prices continued to remain lower on lack of renewed buying interest.
MCX copper February 2009 contracts continued to rule weak and settled at 5.24% lower at Rs 157.35 per kg on Friday from Rs 166.05 over the previous week. "Support is seen at Rs 155 per kg," a local analyst said.
Copper stocks in LME registered warehouses have gained 2,950 tonne to remain at 5,28,250 tonne. Global copper market saw a surplus of 3.29 lakh tonne in 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report said. LME Copper cash was quoted at $3,254.75 per tonne last week.
MCX crude oil March 2009 contracts once again slipped below the Rs 2,000-level and ended lower at Rs 1,957 per barrel on Friday over the previous week's close of Rs 2,080 per barrel, down by 5.91%. WTI crude oil price in NYMEX hovered at around $39.88 per barrel.
Even though inventory data showed a drop in oil stocks, the bearish picture for crude oil consumption is still in place, an analyst with Angel Broking said.
Crude oil prices may trade sideways as demand is unlikely to increase in the medium term, a trader said.
MCX gold April 2009 contracts finished higher at Rs 15,661 per 10 gram on Friday over the previous week's Rs 14,638 per 10 gram, up by 7% as investors have flocked to gold, the safe haven asset. In the London market, spot prices touched $998.57 an ounce.
MCX silver March 2009 contracts were traded higher at Rs 22,970 per kg on Friday from Rs 21,818 over the previous week, up by 5.28%.
The white metals crossed the Rs 23,000 per kg level on Friday mainly on sustained buying support. (source: Financial Express)
Bull run to continue in gold on strong fund buying
Gold has again proven its core investment qualities as a store of value, safe haven and portfolio diversifier and this has struck a chord with nervous investors. Gold price continued to trade near a seven- month high of over the $1,000-mark last Friday, as it consolidated gains before tackling new peaks.
Majority of precious metal analysts say that amid the global economic slowdown, gold prices may continue to remain bullish during this week on continued buying by investors and fund houses, including Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). Gold prices in the London market have risen sharply by nearly 11% over the past seven weeks, on the back of strong investment demand, while the yellow metal gained about 5% during the last week as investors seek an alternative to stocks and bonds.
"Gold prices have touched $1,000 an ounce on Friday as major funds are going long in gold while taking short positions in currency trading. I think price may continue to rule higher and likely to see $1,033 an ounce in the international market.
One can also see a major correction after reaching that level," Bhargav Vaidya, a leading bullion analyst told FE. In the domestic market, prices have also shot up in 2009 from a low of Rs 12,767 per 10 gram to a recent high of Rs 15,706 per 10 gram.
Local prices on Friday firmed at Rs 15,600 per 10 gram in the middle of the wedding season, with scrap meeting most of the little demand.
"There is no new fresh buying of gold jewellery. Import of gold also remained negligible in the current month. I think gold prices may continue to rule higher on sustained buying by investors," said Prithaviraj Kothari, a leading bullion dealer and managing director of Riddhi Siddhi Bullion Ltd.
It is interesting to note that the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings hit a record 1,028.98 tonne last week. Investment in silver ETFs has also been strong, with holdings of the world's largest, the iShares Silver Trust, jumping nearly 3% to a record 7,873.75 tonne last week.
"The outlook for gold remains positive as economic turmoil prevails and investors keep buying gold due to its safe haven appeal. The latest deteriorating economic signs included last Thursday's close of the US Dow industrials index at its lowest in more than 6 years. Gold has decoupled from the dollar. The powerful negative correlation between gold and dollar is very evident visually as the dollar surged against other currencies but gold held its own way," Debjyoti Chatterjee, analyst with MAPE ADMISI Commodity Research said.
"I anticipate that gold, as a unique asset class, will continue to play a vital role in providing stability to both household and professional investors around the world," Aram Shishmanian, CEO, World Gold Council, said. (Source: Financial Express)
Majority of precious metal analysts say that amid the global economic slowdown, gold prices may continue to remain bullish during this week on continued buying by investors and fund houses, including Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). Gold prices in the London market have risen sharply by nearly 11% over the past seven weeks, on the back of strong investment demand, while the yellow metal gained about 5% during the last week as investors seek an alternative to stocks and bonds.
"Gold prices have touched $1,000 an ounce on Friday as major funds are going long in gold while taking short positions in currency trading. I think price may continue to rule higher and likely to see $1,033 an ounce in the international market.
One can also see a major correction after reaching that level," Bhargav Vaidya, a leading bullion analyst told FE. In the domestic market, prices have also shot up in 2009 from a low of Rs 12,767 per 10 gram to a recent high of Rs 15,706 per 10 gram.
Local prices on Friday firmed at Rs 15,600 per 10 gram in the middle of the wedding season, with scrap meeting most of the little demand.
"There is no new fresh buying of gold jewellery. Import of gold also remained negligible in the current month. I think gold prices may continue to rule higher on sustained buying by investors," said Prithaviraj Kothari, a leading bullion dealer and managing director of Riddhi Siddhi Bullion Ltd.
It is interesting to note that the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings hit a record 1,028.98 tonne last week. Investment in silver ETFs has also been strong, with holdings of the world's largest, the iShares Silver Trust, jumping nearly 3% to a record 7,873.75 tonne last week.
"The outlook for gold remains positive as economic turmoil prevails and investors keep buying gold due to its safe haven appeal. The latest deteriorating economic signs included last Thursday's close of the US Dow industrials index at its lowest in more than 6 years. Gold has decoupled from the dollar. The powerful negative correlation between gold and dollar is very evident visually as the dollar surged against other currencies but gold held its own way," Debjyoti Chatterjee, analyst with MAPE ADMISI Commodity Research said.
"I anticipate that gold, as a unique asset class, will continue to play a vital role in providing stability to both household and professional investors around the world," Aram Shishmanian, CEO, World Gold Council, said. (Source: Financial Express)
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Gold breaches Rs 16,000 level in futures trade
NEW DELHI: Breaking all previous records, gold prices on Saturday surged to a new peak at Rs 16,349 per 10 gram in futures trade, as traders
increased their exposure in the precious metal following melting stock and forex markets. The metal, which had been on a record-setting spree for the last one week, spurted to an all-time high of Rs 16,349, by adding 2.55% on the Multi Commodity Exchange, as funds preferred to park their funds in gold amid deepening global recession. The August contract for gold climbed 2.55% to touch Rs 16,349 per 10 gram. It clocked two lots. The bullion market received a major booster from the firming global trend as the gold in the US markets surged to 1,007.20 dollar an ounce last night. "Funds around the world indulged in picking gold as a safe investment during current financial turmoil," said Galipelli Harish, head of research with Karvy Comtrade. The firmness was also witnessed in spot market as gold prices climbed much close the market expectations of Rs 6,000 per 10 gram in all domestic bullion markets. In Delhi, the metal traded at Rs 15,750, in Chennai at Rs 15,775 per 10 gram, respectively. Buying by jewellers and retail customers almost dried up at existing higher levels, said a Delhi-based jeweller Rakesh Anand. (Source: PTI)
increased their exposure in the precious metal following melting stock and forex markets. The metal, which had been on a record-setting spree for the last one week, spurted to an all-time high of Rs 16,349, by adding 2.55% on the Multi Commodity Exchange, as funds preferred to park their funds in gold amid deepening global recession. The August contract for gold climbed 2.55% to touch Rs 16,349 per 10 gram. It clocked two lots. The bullion market received a major booster from the firming global trend as the gold in the US markets surged to 1,007.20 dollar an ounce last night. "Funds around the world indulged in picking gold as a safe investment during current financial turmoil," said Galipelli Harish, head of research with Karvy Comtrade. The firmness was also witnessed in spot market as gold prices climbed much close the market expectations of Rs 6,000 per 10 gram in all domestic bullion markets. In Delhi, the metal traded at Rs 15,750, in Chennai at Rs 15,775 per 10 gram, respectively. Buying by jewellers and retail customers almost dried up at existing higher levels, said a Delhi-based jeweller Rakesh Anand. (Source: PTI)
India's 2008 gold imports down 14 pct on year - WGC
India's gold imports in 2008 fell 14 percent to 660.2 tonnes as higher gold prices and volatility hurt demand, the World Gold Council said on Wednesday.
"The combination of gold's safe haven appeal and extreme uncertainty surrounding other asset classes should see consumers continue to take advantage of any dips in the price (in 2009)," the industry group said in its review.
On Wednesday, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange scaled to a record high of 15,617 rupees per 10 grams on safe haven buying and a weak rupee.
The contract gained more than 28 percent in 2008 as deepening global financial turmoil spurred safe haven buying. (Source: reuters)
"The combination of gold's safe haven appeal and extreme uncertainty surrounding other asset classes should see consumers continue to take advantage of any dips in the price (in 2009)," the industry group said in its review.
On Wednesday, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange scaled to a record high of 15,617 rupees per 10 grams on safe haven buying and a weak rupee.
The contract gained more than 28 percent in 2008 as deepening global financial turmoil spurred safe haven buying. (Source: reuters)
Monday, February 16, 2009
Gold braces for Rs 16,000, demand may dip
Gold is expected to coast to price levels of Rs 16,000 per 10gm after last week’s stretch of record-making highs, as the heavy safe-haven buying overseas showed the peak has yet to come, analysts and traders said.
But prohibitive prices might also crimp retail demand in the gold crazy country, bruising imports further, traders and an analyst said. “If the rupee continues to trade around 48.50-48.70 and investment continues to flow into bullion, there are fair chances for India’s gold prices spiking to at least Rs 16,000 by next couple of months,” said Pradeep Unni, senior research analyst, Richcomm Global Services, Dubai.
A median forecast of a Reuters poll of 14 banks and brokerages in early January saw gold at Rs 12,900 per 10 gm by the end of the quarter to March. But the global economic downturn is resetting prices of the world’s favourite safe haven bet. “The price-level of Rs 16,000 would be a possibility in the next two months’ time,” said Amrut Deshmukh, senior technical analyst, Way 2 Wealth Securities, Mumbai. Brokerage Anand Rathi, one of the respondents in the poll, sees gold touching Rs 15,500 by March-end.
The benchmark April contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.55% higher at Rs 14,709 per 10 gm at 3.51 pm, after hitting an all-time high of Rs 14,824 on February 12. The contract has gained 7.1% so far in 2009 as investors sought safety in the precious metal amid a deepening global recession and financial turmoil. In 2008, gold soared to its year-high of Rs 14,320, up 35.1% from its 2007 close, before falling to Rs 11,290 on October 24. Gold has gained more than two times since 2004.
“If any investor is long, then it is advisable for him to book profits at Rs 16,000 in a couple of months,” Deshmukh added. “Gold may touch Rs 16,000 looking at the current trend and the way things are on the economic front,” said Pinakin Vyaas, chief manager - treasury, IndusInd Bank, Mumbai, adding, “but may not sustain at these levels.”
Demand might also recoil if gold does see never-before-levels, said traders and analysts. “Such high prices may result in severe shelving of retail demand especially under the current economic conditions,” said Richcomm’s Unni.
Purchases are to fall for the second month in a row with no imports so far in February because of high prices, the head of a trade body said. “We have not witnessed much physical movement even during the wedding season either due to cost or low purchasing power,” said IndusInd’s Vyaas. (Source: Reuters)
But prohibitive prices might also crimp retail demand in the gold crazy country, bruising imports further, traders and an analyst said. “If the rupee continues to trade around 48.50-48.70 and investment continues to flow into bullion, there are fair chances for India’s gold prices spiking to at least Rs 16,000 by next couple of months,” said Pradeep Unni, senior research analyst, Richcomm Global Services, Dubai.
A median forecast of a Reuters poll of 14 banks and brokerages in early January saw gold at Rs 12,900 per 10 gm by the end of the quarter to March. But the global economic downturn is resetting prices of the world’s favourite safe haven bet. “The price-level of Rs 16,000 would be a possibility in the next two months’ time,” said Amrut Deshmukh, senior technical analyst, Way 2 Wealth Securities, Mumbai. Brokerage Anand Rathi, one of the respondents in the poll, sees gold touching Rs 15,500 by March-end.
The benchmark April contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.55% higher at Rs 14,709 per 10 gm at 3.51 pm, after hitting an all-time high of Rs 14,824 on February 12. The contract has gained 7.1% so far in 2009 as investors sought safety in the precious metal amid a deepening global recession and financial turmoil. In 2008, gold soared to its year-high of Rs 14,320, up 35.1% from its 2007 close, before falling to Rs 11,290 on October 24. Gold has gained more than two times since 2004.
“If any investor is long, then it is advisable for him to book profits at Rs 16,000 in a couple of months,” Deshmukh added. “Gold may touch Rs 16,000 looking at the current trend and the way things are on the economic front,” said Pinakin Vyaas, chief manager - treasury, IndusInd Bank, Mumbai, adding, “but may not sustain at these levels.”
Demand might also recoil if gold does see never-before-levels, said traders and analysts. “Such high prices may result in severe shelving of retail demand especially under the current economic conditions,” said Richcomm’s Unni.
Purchases are to fall for the second month in a row with no imports so far in February because of high prices, the head of a trade body said. “We have not witnessed much physical movement even during the wedding season either due to cost or low purchasing power,” said IndusInd’s Vyaas. (Source: Reuters)
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Gold crosses Rs 15,000 on fears of prolonged slump
MUMBAI: The rally in gold prices continued on Thursday with the yellow metal crossing the psychological Rs 15,000-mark in Kolkata. The relentless
rally in price has come at a time when the marriage season is in full swing, making the commodity unaffordable for many. In Kolkata trade, gold hit its all-time high of Rs 15,090 per 10 gm. In other metros too, the yellow metal continued its record-breaking spree. In Mumbai, a major gold hub in India, the prices of standard and pure gold shot up by Rs 315 and Rs 320 to Rs 14,705 and Rs 14,770 per 10 gm, respectively, as investors sought safety in the metal. In Delhi, gold advanced by another Rs 350 before closing at Rs 14,900 per 10 gm. It’s not domestic demand which is driving the price surge of the past two days. Traders attribute the rally to the strength in the overseas bullion markets as global slowdown shows little sign of abating. In the international market, the yellow metal continued to rule firm for the second day in a row on fears that the US government’s rescue plan may not revive the economy, fuelling investor demand for bullion and gold-backed exchange traded funds, dealers said. In London, spot gold rose to $942.60/944.60 an ounce at 18:00 pm IST. Gold for February ended up by $30.10 at $943.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Back home, demand for gold jewellery is set to suffer due to a surge in prices in the midst of marriage season, a bullion merchant in Zaveri Bazaar said. According to him, physical buying will emerge again if prices fall below Rs 12,000 per 10 gm. However, a section of marketmen said that some buying by jewellery fabricators to meet the marriage season demand pushed up the gold prices to some extent. Similar firmness was also noticed in silver on sustained support from upcountry buyers after a steep rise in international prices. In the spot market, ready silver (.999) surged by Rs 750 per kg to Rs 21,550 in Chennai. In Mumbai, the white metal recorded a gain of Rs 445 to Rs 21,370 per kg. (source: Economic Times)
rally in price has come at a time when the marriage season is in full swing, making the commodity unaffordable for many. In Kolkata trade, gold hit its all-time high of Rs 15,090 per 10 gm. In other metros too, the yellow metal continued its record-breaking spree. In Mumbai, a major gold hub in India, the prices of standard and pure gold shot up by Rs 315 and Rs 320 to Rs 14,705 and Rs 14,770 per 10 gm, respectively, as investors sought safety in the metal. In Delhi, gold advanced by another Rs 350 before closing at Rs 14,900 per 10 gm. It’s not domestic demand which is driving the price surge of the past two days. Traders attribute the rally to the strength in the overseas bullion markets as global slowdown shows little sign of abating. In the international market, the yellow metal continued to rule firm for the second day in a row on fears that the US government’s rescue plan may not revive the economy, fuelling investor demand for bullion and gold-backed exchange traded funds, dealers said. In London, spot gold rose to $942.60/944.60 an ounce at 18:00 pm IST. Gold for February ended up by $30.10 at $943.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Back home, demand for gold jewellery is set to suffer due to a surge in prices in the midst of marriage season, a bullion merchant in Zaveri Bazaar said. According to him, physical buying will emerge again if prices fall below Rs 12,000 per 10 gm. However, a section of marketmen said that some buying by jewellery fabricators to meet the marriage season demand pushed up the gold prices to some extent. Similar firmness was also noticed in silver on sustained support from upcountry buyers after a steep rise in international prices. In the spot market, ready silver (.999) surged by Rs 750 per kg to Rs 21,550 in Chennai. In Mumbai, the white metal recorded a gain of Rs 445 to Rs 21,370 per kg. (source: Economic Times)
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Gold sets new record at Rs 14,550
Gold sky-rocketed to a record-high level of more than Rs 14,500 per 10 gm in the national capital On Wednesday on frantic buying by stockists and jewellery fabricators, triggered by firming global trends.
The precious metal spurted by Rs 310 at Rs 14,550 per 10 gm, a level never seen before, following reports that gold in overseas markets advanced for the first time in three days on concerns that the global economy will deteriorate, lifting demand for the commodity as a haven.
The international gold markets, which normally determine prices on the domestic front here, turned extremely bullish after it surged to $913.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from $892.40.
US President Barack Obama said the American economy faces a “full-blown crisis” and government action is necessary now to put people back to work.
An ongoing heavy marriage season here further boosted demand for gold among jewellers.
Market players in world bullion markets are optimistic that the metal would remain on a record-making-and-breaking spree for another three months, before setting a new peak.
Global players such as Goldman Sachs, UBS and funds backed by bullion expect gold prices to soar to $1,000 an ounce by April.
On the domestic front, jewellers and bullion traders say the precious metal may touch the Rs 16,000 per 10 gm level in the next three months.
“Currently, gold prices are extremely volatile. Within a week or so, prices would hover in the horizon of Rs 15,000 per 10 gm level. It may not be a surprise to see gold prices at Rs 16,000 per 10 gm in the next three months,” Gitanjali Group Chairman Mehul Choksi said.
Uncertainty in the global financial market and the rupee movement will be key drivers for gold prices, he said, adding that there has not been a significant fall in demand in his stores due to price rise.
Goldman Sachs and UBS raised their forecast for gold citing increased risk in financial markets and mounting concern that government spending on bank bailouts and economic stimulus will spur inflation.
Gold will touch a record this year as efforts to stem a worsening financial crisis spark “explosive” inflation, Van Eck Associates gold-fund said.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, also extended gains to a record 881.67 tonnes.
(Source: Press Trust of India)
The precious metal spurted by Rs 310 at Rs 14,550 per 10 gm, a level never seen before, following reports that gold in overseas markets advanced for the first time in three days on concerns that the global economy will deteriorate, lifting demand for the commodity as a haven.
The international gold markets, which normally determine prices on the domestic front here, turned extremely bullish after it surged to $913.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from $892.40.
US President Barack Obama said the American economy faces a “full-blown crisis” and government action is necessary now to put people back to work.
An ongoing heavy marriage season here further boosted demand for gold among jewellers.
Market players in world bullion markets are optimistic that the metal would remain on a record-making-and-breaking spree for another three months, before setting a new peak.
Global players such as Goldman Sachs, UBS and funds backed by bullion expect gold prices to soar to $1,000 an ounce by April.
On the domestic front, jewellers and bullion traders say the precious metal may touch the Rs 16,000 per 10 gm level in the next three months.
“Currently, gold prices are extremely volatile. Within a week or so, prices would hover in the horizon of Rs 15,000 per 10 gm level. It may not be a surprise to see gold prices at Rs 16,000 per 10 gm in the next three months,” Gitanjali Group Chairman Mehul Choksi said.
Uncertainty in the global financial market and the rupee movement will be key drivers for gold prices, he said, adding that there has not been a significant fall in demand in his stores due to price rise.
Goldman Sachs and UBS raised their forecast for gold citing increased risk in financial markets and mounting concern that government spending on bank bailouts and economic stimulus will spur inflation.
Gold will touch a record this year as efforts to stem a worsening financial crisis spark “explosive” inflation, Van Eck Associates gold-fund said.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, also extended gains to a record 881.67 tonnes.
(Source: Press Trust of India)
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