Guar seed futures to remain firm on lower acreage

Mumbai: Guar seed futures prices on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) may remain firm over the next few days on reports of below average monsoon forecast and expected fall in acreage in the upcoming sowing season.
NCDEX August 2009 contracts rose by nearly Rs 70 to trade at Rs 1,903 per quintal on Wednesday over past two days on lower sowing acreage in guar growing areas and lower stocks.
“There are no reports of rains in Rajasthan. Sowing has just started across Rajasthan with slow pace. Only 10-15% sowing is done till date against the normal 50-55%,” a local trader said.
Futures prices hit upper circuit on Tuesday and gained nearly 3.5% over past two days on strong market sentiments thanks to below normal monsoon forecast for season June-September 2009 and drop in the acreage under guar. “Sowing of guar, which normally takes place between May 15 and continues till Mid-June was delayed this year. Drastic fall in acreage under guar has also been witnessed across North Rajasthan,” analyst with Angel Broking said.
Met department has predicted that the monsoon in the Northwest India (which is the main guar belt) is only 81% which will affect the output of guar in the coming season, analyst said.
“A delay in monsoon will also affect the sowing and output which can push guar prices further up,” Tarun Satsangi, AVP, Bonanza Commodity said.
“Technically, guar can see a pullback in prices and it can touch trend line support of Rs 1,846 from where prices can again get into bullish momentum and prices can once again surge towards Rs 1,922 and then towards Rs 1,956 in the near term, he said. (source: FE)

Appreciating rupee likely to keep guarseed futures weak

Mumbai: Guarseed futures prices may remain weak over the next few days on reports of appreciating rupee and forecast of early arrival of monsoon.
Thanks to strong rupee value against dollar, demand from overseas market was low and will depend on the currency movement. Also, forecast of early arrival of monsoon will play important role for guarseed output.
“The rupee value had appreciated about 4.25% in past four days. This strong movement was unexpected and unusual, after the ruling coalition won a comfortable victory in the elections. Hence, demand for export is limited as strong rupee may hit exporters’ margin. Futures prices are also ruling lower than spot prices,” a leading trader at Jodhpur said.
Guargum exports were initially estimated to touch 2.25 lakh tonne this fiscal, but now the industry expects it to be 1.75 lakh tonne only.
The NCDEX June 2009 contracts (ex-Jodhpur) fell nearly Rs 50 to trade at Rs 1,757 per quintal on Thursday over past one week while spot price at Jodhpur market was quoted at Rs 1,772.75 per quintal.
“Indian Metrological department (IMD) would give its second long range weather forecast by mid-June. This would decide the further trend in guar complex. If the initial forecast of normal monsoon hold well, guar output may be expected good next year,” analyst with Angel Commodities said.
“Besides output forecast, other factors like demand from the overseas market, rupee movement and trend in crude oil prices would also have an influence on the prices in the long term,” he added. (Source: Finanicial Express)