Monday, March 23, 2009

Castor oil export on growth path, 2.90 lakh tonne likely this year

At a time when overall exports of major agriculture commodities have registered a negative growth in the last few months, export of castor oil and its derivatives has sustained its growth till date and will continue to show positive sign this year.
Total export is expected to reach at 2.90 lakh tonne in the financial year that ends on March 31, the highest in the last five years. Annual exports were below 2 lakh tonne during the last five years. Export has registered a significant growth of around 80% in last ten months and reached 2.71 lakh tonne, up from 1.50 lakh tonne in the same period previous year.
"Castor oil export is expected to be around 17,000-18,000 tonne during February and March 2009 including 10,000-12,000 tonne in bulk cargoes and 5,000-6,000 tonne in containers," Wamanbhai Udeshi, director, Jayant Agro-Organics Ltd told FE. Total export of castor oil may touch 2.90 lakh tonne in 2008-09 (April-March) from 1.76 lakh tonne actual recorded in 2007-08 with the advantage of depreciating rupee value against US dollar and the higher crude oil prices globally.
Traders expect castor oil export to grow more than 60% during the current financial year over previous year, because of its unique chemical structure that makes it a unique substitute for petrol-based fuels.
"There is some export enquires for castor oil. Recently, a Thailand based importer has booked cargoes of about 400 tonne at $850 per tonne FOB value," Udeshi said.
International prices of castor oil are currently ruling lower at $1,250 -ex-tank Rotterdam for April/May 2009 shipments-last week from $1,425 per tonne in January 2009.
"Weak rupee value and expected fresh demand from China and Russia may keep prices firm," a leading exporter said.
In the domestic market, fresh buying from millers and stockists will continue. They are accumulating some stocks at the moment. Total arrivals at major market yards across Gujarat have increased to 45,000 bags (each of 75 kg), a leading broker said. Spot castor oil first special grade prices are quoted around Rs 475 per 20 kg ex-Kandla.
"We expect export demand to generate in coming days, as stimulus packages released by various governments including that by China, our major importer of castor oil is put to work," analyst with Sharekhan said. The country expects a bumper crop of 11 lakh tonne of castorseed this year. (Source: Financial Express)

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Mentha oil futures up 15%, acreage likely to dip

Mumbai: Mentha oil March futures prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have jumped up by nearly 15% in just two weeks on reports of a likely drop in acreage for 2009 crop supported by stockists holding, trade sources said.
Mentha oil March 2009 contracts gained by about Rs 80 to trade at Rs 597.40 per kg on Tuesday over the past two weeks on improved demand from domestic markets. Spot prices in the producing centre also increased by nearly Rs 22-25 a kg as major stockists are holding in the exchange designated warehouses.
“MCX March contract is witnessing some correction, after testing a high of Rs 604 per kg. At present, the availability of stocks in the exchange warehouses is very low at 752 drums (1 drum = 180 kgs). This will support the prices to remain firm in the short term,” Naveen Mathur, head, Angel Commodities told FE. “The medium to long term trend would depend on the overseas demand which is currently at a very slow pace. Also, weather will play a crucial role in affecting the availability of mentha oil and its next crop size,” he added.
Now prices are seen in correction mode due to profit booking at higher levels and easing demand ahead of summer season.
“Initial reports of sowing are indicating less acreage under mentha crop for the year, which may be a bullish factor in days to come. Arrivals to the spot market have increased to 300 drums per day,” Tarun Satsangi, AVP research (commodities), Bonanza Commodity Brokers said.
In MCX April futures counter, immediate resistance is seen at Rs 580 a kg and support is at Rs 550 and look to sell around Rs 570-575 with stop loss above Rs 580 and target Rs 550-536, analyst said.
Exports of mint products, mentha oil, menthol and menthol crystals, eased 4.35% to 17,500 tonne in the April-January (2008-2009) period from a year ago. (source: Financial Express)

Hard times ahead as global economies expected to contract further

By Naveen Mathur (Head, Angel Commdities)
Global financial markets have faced the brunt of the economic slowdown and the IMF expects global growth to contract by ½ to 1% in 2009. Industrial activity has been affected and demand for industrial metals has been hit badly. The year 2008 was very volatile as the first-half witnessed a gain in commodity prices followed by a slump in the second-half. However, commodities have started 2009 on an upbeat note as expectations of the impact of stimulus packages have provided support. Prices have also risen on the back of technically driven rallies and short-covering. The impact of production cutbacks on prices has not been witnessed as yet as the demand situation is grim. But by the end of this year we could see a recovery in prices as demand could slightly improve and the already taken production cutbacks will show their impact.
Amid all this global financial turmoil, gold has performed phenomenally as it is the most traditional form of investment and considered as a safe-haven asset. Base metal prices have also gained on the back of short-covering rallies and anticipation of buying activity due to re-weighting of some commodity indices, during the first half of January. Therefore, the reason for the rise in base metal prices in 2009 has nothing to do with the improvement in fundamentals. Hence, we feel that the gains that were made in the short-term may be given back as fast as they were achieved. Though there are indications of a pick-up in demand from China for re-stocking, the overall improvement may not happen soon and we expect a revival and recovery in prices in 2HCY2009. This recovery in prices could be fuelled by a pick up in demand from Asia, especially China, as the country implements its $586-billion stimulus package that is aimed at infrastructure development. On the other hand, the supply side will also play a major role in pushing prices higher as cutbacks have been widespread, fast and large in scale. Markets have not yet responded to the impact of cutbacks but could feel the effects in full swing by 2HCY2009. The extensive production cuts could help boost sentiments and push prices higher.
More Info on this Link: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Hard-times-ahead-as-global-economies-expected-to-contract-further/437448/
(source: Financial Express)

Is organic farming a feasible alternative?

Organic foods are a matter of choice of an individual or enterprises. If somebody wants to go in for organic farming, primarily on commercial consideration/profits motive, to take advantage of the unusually higher prices of organic food, they are free to do so.
Organic farming is essentially a marking tool, and cannot replace conventional farming for food security, quality and quantity of crop outputs. With a growing population and precarious food situation, the country cannot afford to take a risk with organic farming alone.
"Organic farming is not feasible as an alternative to conventional farming under all circumstances in the Indian context. The shortfall in inorganic nutrient supply, uneconomic returns to inorganic inputs under dryland and rainfed farming systems, inherent better response to organic farming in crops like vegetables, legumes and millets under traditional farming systems paves way for integration of conventional farming with organic farming," BG Shivakumar, eminent scientist, division of agronomy, Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi said.
"There will be scope for practicing organic farming on a case-to-case basis in traditional strongholds like hilly areas, rainfed and dryland farming systems to cater to the demands of organic produces in urban areas that would pay premium prices for such commodities," he said.
A transition period of 3-4 years is generally required to convert a conventional farm into an organic farm. In this period, the produce is not considered as organically produced. The reduced yields and lack of benefits of premium for the produce is a double blow for farmers, leading to financial losses, which are substantial for small- to medium-farmers.
Organic farming should be considered for lesser endowed regions of the country. It should be started with low volume high value crops like spices and medicinal aromatic crops. A holistic approach involving integrated nutrient management, integrated pest management, enhanced input use efficiency and adoption of region-specific promising cropping systems would be the best farming strategy for India, he added.
"State governments like Karnataka and Uttaranchal are taking special efforts to increase the area under organic farming. But there is reluctance on the part of farmers, due to the very high cost of conversion from conventional to organic farming, to make the land free from chemical residues," S Kumarasamy, Chairman of Agrochemicals Policy Group (APG) said.
"The certification system is yet to be fully functional. Some of the certification agencies do not strictly adhere to the standards of organic farming operations to protect their commercial interest. This has come to light recently, when a consignment of organic Basmati rice from India was held up in Finland, as it was found to contain pesticide residues. Given these constraints, the growth of area under organic farming is minimal," he said. (Source: Financial Express)

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Oilmeal exports seen at 5.5 mt

Mumbai, New Delhi: Total exports of oilmeals from the country may reach to a record level of 5.5 million tonne valued at nearly Rs 8,500 crore (FOB value) for the current financial year 2008-09, thanks to the overall good crop of major oilseeds last year supported by higher price realisation in the international markets.
So far, the overall export of oilmeals for the period April 2008 to February 2009 was reported at 5.05 million tonne against 4.58 million tonne, up by 10%. Total FOB earning is estimated at Rs 7,790 crore, according to the latest data released by Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA).
"I think total export of oilmeals may reach to 5.4-5.5 million tonne for FY 2008-09 due to good crop of major oilseeds and higher price realisation in the international markets. I expect export for March to reach around 4,00,000 tonne," BV Mehta, executive director, SEAI told FE.
Export of oilmeals for February 2009 was reported at 4,41,000 tonne against 7,63,000 tonne in February 2008, down by 42%. The FOB earning was Rs 790 crore.
The export jumped during the first two quarters of 2008-09 due to excellent demand and FOB realisation. However, export got stagnated in the third quarter and in last two months export declined heavily due to stagnation in production of meat and poultry worldwide following financial crisis and pronounced slowdown in economic activity affected consumer demand for livestock products, he said.
In last few months, export of oilmeals has declined sharply due to various reasons. The association has decided to step up promotional efforts to check the declining trend and planning to depute a trade delegation in second half of May 2009 to some of the key markets in South-East Asia like Cambodia, Laos and Phillipines to maintain India's share in world market and to develop a new markets for oilmeals.
Meanwhile, Indore-based traded body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) on Thursday said that the export of soymeal during February 2009 fell by more than 40% to 3,81,000 tonne against 6,40,000 tonne achieved during the same month last year.
The exports during April 2008 to February 2009 period rose to 4.2 million tonne as compared to 3.38 million tonne achieved during the same period last year, up by 24%.
“Low realisation from crushing and high cost of soymeal are main reasons for decline in exports,” Rajesh Agrawal, co-ordinator, SOPA told FE. The prices of soymeal, widely used for human consumption and poultry feed, has hit a record high at Rs 21,200 a tonne against around Rs 18,000 per tonne prevailed recently. (Source: Financial Express)

NCDEX Spot launches delivery contract of black pepper

Mumbai: NCDEX Spot Exchange Ltd (NSPOT) is launching compulsory delivery contract of black pepper-garbled on its electronic platform from Friday.
At this moment, the contract is aimed at black pepper producers of Kerala but later Karnataka will also be included.
While the current contract is for garbled black pepper, the exchange would launch a separate contract of un-garbled pepper later.
"After successful launch of sugar in Maharashtra, this move will benefit the farmers of the Kerala immensely," R Ramasheshan, managing director and CEO, NCDEX said.
The delivery centre for the contract would be at Kochi with minimum trading lot of one tonne. All trades on the exchange are guaranteed by the exchange for delivery and payments. The tick size of the contract will be Rs 1 per quintal.
According to contract specifications, three level circuit filters has been designed for this contract. Once the first level of (+/-) 6% is hit, trading is halted for 15 minutes then the filter is enhanced by (+/-) 3% to create the second level. After resumption, if the second level is hit the trading is again halted for 15 minutes and the filter is enhanced further by another (+/-) 3% to create the third level. Incase the third level is also hit; trading is suspended for the day.
The contract will allow participants from all over the country to buy black pepper, thereby, enabling producers in Kochi to discover best price for their black pepper traded on the exchange platform. (source: Financial Express)

Futures market regulator urged to improve price info

Mumbai: The futures market regulators should improve the availability and quality of information on commodities traded in related physical and OTC derivatives markets. Such information may be needed to understand price formation or to monitor and detect manipulation in the futures markets. This is one of the key recommendations made by the task force on commodity futures markets.
The international organisation of securities commissions' (IOSCO) technical committee on Thursday released a final report prepared by its Task Force on Commodity
Futures Markets (Task Force) in Madrid (Spain) which contains recommendations to improve the supervision of commodity futures markets and global regulatory cooperation.
"Commodities markets, and the trade in their related futures, are fundamental to a vibrant global economy. Given the growth in these markets, and recent volatility in commodities prices, there are concerns about the possibility of market manipulation involving both these futures markets and related physical and OTC derivative markets,” Kathleen Casey, chairman, Technical Committee, said.
The other major recommendations focused on the ability of futures market regulators to access relevant information concerning related commodity markets over which futures market regulators generally do not have jurisdiction, such as the cash and OTC derivatives markets, improving regulators' supervisory and enforcement powers and the enhancement of global cooperation.
The Task Force, which was formed following concerns around the price rises and volatility in agricultural and energy commodities in 2008, focused on whether futures market regulators' supervisory approaches was appropriate in light of recent market developments.
While reports reviewed by the Task Force concluded that fundamentals rather than speculative activity was the plausible explanation for price changes, the Task Force has made a number of recommendations to improve the transparency and supervision of these markets.
Task Force called for measures to improve regulators' supervisory and enforcement powers and the enhancement of global cooperation. (source: Financial Express)

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

DTC Feb Sight Estimated at $110M

Participants in the Diamond Trading Company's (DTC) February sight reported a slight increase in activity and interest in goods, although the sight remained comparatively very small. While somewhat hesitant to commit to a figure, sight participants estimated the sight's value at about $110 million. “It’s very difficult to assess the sights in this environment,” said one observer, but noted that there was "a little more movement in goods than the previous two sights.” He speculated that sightholders have gotten somewhat used to the current market, and are now more focused on doing business, buying goods from DTC and selling in the market. One sightholder agreed that there was more of a buzz at the sight, but suspected that “there is a lot of window-shopping going on, and not so much buying.” Louise Prior, DTC spokesperson, also noted a more positive mood at the February sight than there had been in December and January, and reported an improvement in sales from those previous two sights. She declined to project whether this signaled some stabilization of the market. Rapaport News estimated the December and January sights as worth about $100 million and $80 million, respectively. Sales during the past three months have been about 83 percent below those recorded in the three DTC sights from December 2007 through February 2008, with an estimated total of $1.7 billion.Prices Drop But Still Above MarketAll of the February sight participants surveyed by Rapaport News reported some price revision but agreed that DTC's prices were still above other rough sources in the market. One sightholder estimated that DTC goods were still 15 to 20 percent too high, and behind the market. “DTC is staying firm on their pricing,” said another sightholder. Some boxes reflected the shift in the polished market value, mainly on the smaller goods, "maybe 3 grainers and down, where there is more interest at the moment,” said one. The bigger the stones, the larger the gap was between DTC prices and market value, he explained. De Beers reported that its rough diamond prices rose by an average of 14 percent in 2008, on the back of the boom in the market in the first half of the year. A company spokesperson told Rapaport News that lower consumer demand for most categories of polished diamonds in the second half “led to downward pressure on DTC prices and lower purchase requirements from sightholders whilst they adjusted to liquidity and inventory-level challenges and the global financing situation.” The company reported in August 2008 that prices had risen by a cumulative 16 percent for the year to date. According to Rapaport estimates, the decline in the fourth quarter brought prices in December to about 20 percent lower than they were in August. RBC Capital Markets estimated this week in a note about the Harry Winston Diamond Corporation that rough diamond prices fell approximately 40 percent in the final quarter of 2008. De Beers has also cut its production significantly to meet lower demand from sightholders, which has helped it maintain its price levels. Second Sight weekIn an unprecedented move, DTC carried over some rejected stock from the February sight after it closed on Friday, February 27, to sell to sightholders this week. The company is offering rejected boxes to sightholders that need specific items or that need goods that weren’t in their Intention to offer (ITO). Prior said that DTC is gathering feedback from sightholders to assess the success of the initiative. She added that the company has not decided to go to the secondary market, as DTC hinted it might in January, but it is keeping all its options open. Bracing for a Challenging Year Varda Shine, DTC's managing director, said in the recently published De Beers annual report that “a combination of high inventory levels in the cutting centers and a forecast for a further marginal contraction in 2009 consumer demand is expected to impact global rough sales significantly.” The outlook for trading in southern Africa in 2009 also remains challenging, given the weak polished market and working capital constraints, she added. DTC ended 2008 with sales flat at $5.93 billion across its operations in London, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Sales from DTC Botswana (DTCB) and Namibia DTC (NDTC) were $367 million and $172 million, respectively, while DTC South Africa achieved sales of $574 million, De Beers reported. Shine said that DTC would focus on achieving "further cost efficiencies" in 2009's "pressured trading environment." (source: Rapaport News Wire)