The Cotton Association of India notes with disappointment the movement by certain sectors of the cotton chain to restrict and even ban Cotton exports. Such recommendations if implemented would bring the country back to the pre-liberalisation era of the 1980’s and early 1990’s.
Any such move will adversely affect the interest of the nation in general and that of the Indian farmer in particular. While the Indian farmer has the protection of a guaranteed MSP, this should not be the reason to prevent him realising a value for his produce which is equal to his counterpart in USA, China, Uzbekistan or several African nations.
India is expected to produce 305 lakh bales and import 7 lakh bales in the 2009-10 season and therefore despite exporting close to 70 lakh bales, after providing for domestic consumption of 240 lakh bales the season will end with a closing stock of around 73.50 lakh bales which will provide for a healthy 3.5 months of consumption.
Local prices have risen lately only in reaction to high prices in the international markets which have gone up by around 15 % in the last one month. It is noteworthy that Indian prices have gone up by less than 10% in the same period.
Unreasonably pessimistic estimates of the crop in a season which has witnessed the highest cotton acreage in history ( 100 lakh hectares) will only cause panic in the market and lead to higher prices.
Despite the rise in prices locally, Indian mills continue to get cotton cheaper than almost any of their counterparts in the world. Over and above this Indian mills have the option to import cotton without any restrictions and nil import duty unlike their competing counterparts in other countries for eg. China where mills have to face quota restrictions, duties and local taxes to import cotton.
It is highly inappropriate that when the spinning industry does not possess adequate capacity to process all the raw cotton produced in the country it should propose any restriction on export of the available surplus. Such a step would only result in the Indian farmer subsidising the Indian spinner.
The theory of ‘value added’ being raised is self contradicting. While cotton is the raw material to make yarn which is spun from it, yarn itself is the raw material for fabric and garments. Both yarn and fabric continue to be freely exportable. However, if one goes by the ‘value added’ theory this should not be the case.
Cotton acreage which has seen a rising trend recently will receive a setback if farmers do not receive a fair price as per international levels as a result of the proposed restrictions on exports.
Reports emerging from the upcountry markets show that this year is again going to see a high quality crop which will be available till the end of the season.
The country is likely to see a very comfortable stock to use ratio of 0.24 at the end of the season. While comparing the ratios with that of other countries one needs to bear in mind that India is a cotton producing country unlike Bangladesh, Taiwan etc which do not produce any cotton. Again India is a net exporting country unlike China, Pakistan or Turkey which are all net importing countries. Also the ratio for India pertains to the October-September period in comparison to the International norm of August-July period. In fact of late, cotton begins to arrive in India even before the statistical season commences on 1st October.
All in all the cotton season 2009-2010 promises to be one with a comfortable position of availability both for the domestic and export markets.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Latest Cotton Estimate
Cotton Association of India (CAI) released its September estimates (as on 30th September 2009) of the Cotton Crop for the season 2009-10. CAI estimated the Cotton Crop for the new season at 312.75 lakh bales, marginally higher than last months estimates. The projected Balance Sheet drawn by the CAI for the year 2009-10, estimated the total cotton supply at 391.25 lakh bales, while the domestic consumption was estimated at 250.00 lakh bales, thus leaving a surplus of 141.25 lakh bales. The CAI estimated the cotton exports during 2009-10 season at 70.00 lakh bales. A statement containing the State-wise estimates of Crop and Balance Sheet for the season 2009-10 is enclosed.The impact of flood situation in the States of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka has not been severe. Yield is a cause of concern because of erratic rains although any decrease in yield is likely to be made up by historical high acreage under cotton close to 100 lakh hectares. Even with higher exports estimated for this season, carry-over stock at the end of the season would be quite comfortable resulting in one of the highest stock-to-use ratio in recent times.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
MCX resumes trading in gasoline futures
Mumbai: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) on Wednesday launched its futures trading in gasoline contracts. MCX is the first exchange in the country to launch the full basket of energy products including crude oil, heating oil and natural gas.
Initially, Gasoline July, August and September 2009 contracts are available for futures trading from Wednesday. On the first day of trading, July, August and September contracts prices were traded at Rs 93, Rs 92.25 and Rs 88.85 per US gallon (3.78 litre). “After crude oil and natural gas futures, gasoline contracts will be the better option in the energy basket for trading as gasoline prices share a great correlation with crude oil prices world over,” a leading analyst said. “The correlation is over 90%. To make the most of this, refiners in developed countries use crude oil and gasoline futures contracts collectively to lock-in their refinery margin. The same can be done for heating oil also as price correlation in that case is around 99%,” he said.
At present, the New York Mercantile Exchange has liquid contracts in gasoline. (Source: FE).
Initially, Gasoline July, August and September 2009 contracts are available for futures trading from Wednesday. On the first day of trading, July, August and September contracts prices were traded at Rs 93, Rs 92.25 and Rs 88.85 per US gallon (3.78 litre). “After crude oil and natural gas futures, gasoline contracts will be the better option in the energy basket for trading as gasoline prices share a great correlation with crude oil prices world over,” a leading analyst said. “The correlation is over 90%. To make the most of this, refiners in developed countries use crude oil and gasoline futures contracts collectively to lock-in their refinery margin. The same can be done for heating oil also as price correlation in that case is around 99%,” he said.
At present, the New York Mercantile Exchange has liquid contracts in gasoline. (Source: FE).
Guar seed futures to remain firm on lower acreage
Mumbai: Guar seed futures prices on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) may remain firm over the next few days on reports of below average monsoon forecast and expected fall in acreage in the upcoming sowing season.
NCDEX August 2009 contracts rose by nearly Rs 70 to trade at Rs 1,903 per quintal on Wednesday over past two days on lower sowing acreage in guar growing areas and lower stocks.
“There are no reports of rains in Rajasthan. Sowing has just started across Rajasthan with slow pace. Only 10-15% sowing is done till date against the normal 50-55%,” a local trader said.
Futures prices hit upper circuit on Tuesday and gained nearly 3.5% over past two days on strong market sentiments thanks to below normal monsoon forecast for season June-September 2009 and drop in the acreage under guar. “Sowing of guar, which normally takes place between May 15 and continues till Mid-June was delayed this year. Drastic fall in acreage under guar has also been witnessed across North Rajasthan,” analyst with Angel Broking said.
Met department has predicted that the monsoon in the Northwest India (which is the main guar belt) is only 81% which will affect the output of guar in the coming season, analyst said.
“A delay in monsoon will also affect the sowing and output which can push guar prices further up,” Tarun Satsangi, AVP, Bonanza Commodity said.
“Technically, guar can see a pullback in prices and it can touch trend line support of Rs 1,846 from where prices can again get into bullish momentum and prices can once again surge towards Rs 1,922 and then towards Rs 1,956 in the near term, he said. (source: FE)
NCDEX August 2009 contracts rose by nearly Rs 70 to trade at Rs 1,903 per quintal on Wednesday over past two days on lower sowing acreage in guar growing areas and lower stocks.
“There are no reports of rains in Rajasthan. Sowing has just started across Rajasthan with slow pace. Only 10-15% sowing is done till date against the normal 50-55%,” a local trader said.
Futures prices hit upper circuit on Tuesday and gained nearly 3.5% over past two days on strong market sentiments thanks to below normal monsoon forecast for season June-September 2009 and drop in the acreage under guar. “Sowing of guar, which normally takes place between May 15 and continues till Mid-June was delayed this year. Drastic fall in acreage under guar has also been witnessed across North Rajasthan,” analyst with Angel Broking said.
Met department has predicted that the monsoon in the Northwest India (which is the main guar belt) is only 81% which will affect the output of guar in the coming season, analyst said.
“A delay in monsoon will also affect the sowing and output which can push guar prices further up,” Tarun Satsangi, AVP, Bonanza Commodity said.
“Technically, guar can see a pullback in prices and it can touch trend line support of Rs 1,846 from where prices can again get into bullish momentum and prices can once again surge towards Rs 1,922 and then towards Rs 1,956 in the near term, he said. (source: FE)
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Chana futures to remain weak on higher stocks
Mumbai: Chana futures prices on the national commodity bourses may remain weak over the next few days on higher stocks with exchange warehouses supported by continued imported inflows of pulses. Overall demand from local buyers is limited.
Chana futures on NCDEX fell by nearly 12% to trade at Rs 2,119 per quintal on Monday over last month mainly on increased supplies amid restricted buying from basan mills.
Chana prices also fell by Rs 20 to 2,125 per quintal on Monday at Delhi market with daily inflows of about 3,500-4,000 bags.
“Rising stocks in exchange warehouses and higher output estimates by the government pushed the chana futures prices lower,” analyst with Bonanza Commodity Broker said. Demand from millers remained steady, he said.
Warehouse stocks in the NCDEX has risen around 56% in the month of May and stood at 84,154 tonne, as per latest exchange data.
Sowing of kharif pulses including tur, urad and moong may commence in the coming weeks and given the higher prices of these pulses, a higher acreage this season could not be denied.
Spot prices of urad, tur and masoor are ruling higher than chana prices in the northern markets. It can be noted that only yellow peas’ prices are ruling lower than chana due to government intervention. “A stronger rupee that made imports cheaper was nullifying impact of lower arrivals. State run agencies have contracted to import of 64,000 tonne of pulses for 2009-10,” Anand James, senior analyst with Geojit Comtrade, said.
Government agencies had contracted 1.03 million tonne of pulses in the previous year and 9.28 lakh tonne have landed in the country, according to government agencies. “We expect chana prices to remain weak in the coming weeks as stockists may not like to hold for long time when the availability in the open market is good enough. I think prices may slip to below Rs 2,000 levels,” a local trader said.
Chana output may rise to 13.7% to 6.54 million tonne in 2008-09 against the 5.75 million tonne a year ago, according to government estimates. (Source: Financial Express)
Chana futures on NCDEX fell by nearly 12% to trade at Rs 2,119 per quintal on Monday over last month mainly on increased supplies amid restricted buying from basan mills.
Chana prices also fell by Rs 20 to 2,125 per quintal on Monday at Delhi market with daily inflows of about 3,500-4,000 bags.
“Rising stocks in exchange warehouses and higher output estimates by the government pushed the chana futures prices lower,” analyst with Bonanza Commodity Broker said. Demand from millers remained steady, he said.
Warehouse stocks in the NCDEX has risen around 56% in the month of May and stood at 84,154 tonne, as per latest exchange data.
Sowing of kharif pulses including tur, urad and moong may commence in the coming weeks and given the higher prices of these pulses, a higher acreage this season could not be denied.
Spot prices of urad, tur and masoor are ruling higher than chana prices in the northern markets. It can be noted that only yellow peas’ prices are ruling lower than chana due to government intervention. “A stronger rupee that made imports cheaper was nullifying impact of lower arrivals. State run agencies have contracted to import of 64,000 tonne of pulses for 2009-10,” Anand James, senior analyst with Geojit Comtrade, said.
Government agencies had contracted 1.03 million tonne of pulses in the previous year and 9.28 lakh tonne have landed in the country, according to government agencies. “We expect chana prices to remain weak in the coming weeks as stockists may not like to hold for long time when the availability in the open market is good enough. I think prices may slip to below Rs 2,000 levels,” a local trader said.
Chana output may rise to 13.7% to 6.54 million tonne in 2008-09 against the 5.75 million tonne a year ago, according to government estimates. (Source: Financial Express)
Wheat futures to remain weak
Mumbai: Wheat futures prices may remain weak over the next few days mainly on restricted buying interest amid huge stocks with Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state government agencies
Wheat June 2009 futures on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) fell by nearly Rs 35 over eight trading session to trade at Rs 1,105 a quintal on limited buying support.
On Wednesday, prices quoted below Rs 1,100 mark a quintal. Significant volumes were witnessed with an increase in the open interest at 17,350 tonne compared with 6,610 tonne two days back.
“Futures prices are still higher than the spot markets. I think prices may remain under pressure amid slow trades. Buyers have reserved their buying thanks to huge stock base with government agencies. Other hand, spot prices are also weakening slowly on lack of fresh buying. Big MNCs are currently away from the market,” a local trader said.
Spot prices in the northern India also declined gradually and are quoting below minimum support price (MSP) level in some part of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan mainly due to restricted buying. Spot price in Delhi market was quoted at Rs 1,088 a quintal as against MSP level of Rs 1,080.
Among the major trading in north India, spot prices were quoted lower at Rs 1,045 at Kanpur mandi, Rs 1,020 at Bareilly mandi and Rs 1,074 a quintal in Kota market.
“Fundamentally, there is a supply glut in both the Indian and global wheat markets. Thus, from the longer term perspective, wheat prices are expected to remain bearish,” analyst with Angel Commodities said.
The government is not in hurry to lift wheat exports curbs which will keep price under check. The quantitative restriction of 20 lakh tonne on wheat export may soon be waived by allowing free trade as there is a record procurement of the food grain this year, trade sources said.
In the short to medium term, prices are likely to fall further due to bumper crop in the current season and government agencies have procured huge stocks in the domestic market due to a record production, analyst said.
It can be noted that huge wheat stocks (13-14 million tonnes as on 1 April) with the government against the normal 4 million tonnes and higher procurement target 24.4 million tonnes ensures that wheat prices in the domestic market are unlikely to shoot up in the longer term. (Source: Financial Express)
Wheat June 2009 futures on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) fell by nearly Rs 35 over eight trading session to trade at Rs 1,105 a quintal on limited buying support.
On Wednesday, prices quoted below Rs 1,100 mark a quintal. Significant volumes were witnessed with an increase in the open interest at 17,350 tonne compared with 6,610 tonne two days back.
“Futures prices are still higher than the spot markets. I think prices may remain under pressure amid slow trades. Buyers have reserved their buying thanks to huge stock base with government agencies. Other hand, spot prices are also weakening slowly on lack of fresh buying. Big MNCs are currently away from the market,” a local trader said.
Spot prices in the northern India also declined gradually and are quoting below minimum support price (MSP) level in some part of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan mainly due to restricted buying. Spot price in Delhi market was quoted at Rs 1,088 a quintal as against MSP level of Rs 1,080.
Among the major trading in north India, spot prices were quoted lower at Rs 1,045 at Kanpur mandi, Rs 1,020 at Bareilly mandi and Rs 1,074 a quintal in Kota market.
“Fundamentally, there is a supply glut in both the Indian and global wheat markets. Thus, from the longer term perspective, wheat prices are expected to remain bearish,” analyst with Angel Commodities said.
The government is not in hurry to lift wheat exports curbs which will keep price under check. The quantitative restriction of 20 lakh tonne on wheat export may soon be waived by allowing free trade as there is a record procurement of the food grain this year, trade sources said.
In the short to medium term, prices are likely to fall further due to bumper crop in the current season and government agencies have procured huge stocks in the domestic market due to a record production, analyst said.
It can be noted that huge wheat stocks (13-14 million tonnes as on 1 April) with the government against the normal 4 million tonnes and higher procurement target 24.4 million tonnes ensures that wheat prices in the domestic market are unlikely to shoot up in the longer term. (Source: Financial Express)
Turmeric price to remain bearish
Mumbai: Futures and spot prices of turmeric on the national bourses may continue to remain weak over next few days in anticipation that the production of turmeric in the coming season would be better due to early onset of monsoon.
Last week, turmeric June contracts on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) fell sharply by nearly Rs 590 per quintal or 11% to trade at Rs 4,927 per quintal on Monday over the last week on some profit-taking on reports of weak overseas demand and rise acreage in coming season in Andhra Pradesh.
“Turmeric prices went down by near 4% over past few days extending the losses on weak demand and rise acreage in coming season led the traders to book profits and come out of their long positions,” Anand James, senior analyst, Geojit Comtrade said.
Early onset of the monsoon may induce farmers to go for sowing of turmeric. Sowing of turmeric is expected to increase as they earned better prices in the current year, he added.
Spot prices at the Nizambad mandi also declined by Rs 250 per quintal on scattered buying interest from local buyers. However, spot markets at Nizamabad and Erode remained closed on Saturday due to weekly off. Price gap between spot and futures markets has widened to over Rs 300 per quintal, trade sources said.
“In the long term, prices may take cues from the availability of turmeric in 2009 and demand from the domestic as well as overseas market,” Nalini Rao, analyst with Angel Commodities said.
Physical stocks with the farmers and stockists are at lower levels which include Nizamabad-4 lakh bags, Erode-8 lakh bags, Sangli and Duggiralla-1.5lakh bags each and Warrangal-1 lakh bag.
“Sowing of turmeric is expected to grow in Nizamabad and Erode by around 20% and 40% respectively. Sowing commences with the onset of monsoon in the month of June. Demand from the domestic and overseas market is present in small quantity due to appreciation in rupee and subsequent decline in overseas orders,” she said. (Source: Financial Express)
Last week, turmeric June contracts on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) fell sharply by nearly Rs 590 per quintal or 11% to trade at Rs 4,927 per quintal on Monday over the last week on some profit-taking on reports of weak overseas demand and rise acreage in coming season in Andhra Pradesh.
“Turmeric prices went down by near 4% over past few days extending the losses on weak demand and rise acreage in coming season led the traders to book profits and come out of their long positions,” Anand James, senior analyst, Geojit Comtrade said.
Early onset of the monsoon may induce farmers to go for sowing of turmeric. Sowing of turmeric is expected to increase as they earned better prices in the current year, he added.
Spot prices at the Nizambad mandi also declined by Rs 250 per quintal on scattered buying interest from local buyers. However, spot markets at Nizamabad and Erode remained closed on Saturday due to weekly off. Price gap between spot and futures markets has widened to over Rs 300 per quintal, trade sources said.
“In the long term, prices may take cues from the availability of turmeric in 2009 and demand from the domestic as well as overseas market,” Nalini Rao, analyst with Angel Commodities said.
Physical stocks with the farmers and stockists are at lower levels which include Nizamabad-4 lakh bags, Erode-8 lakh bags, Sangli and Duggiralla-1.5lakh bags each and Warrangal-1 lakh bag.
“Sowing of turmeric is expected to grow in Nizamabad and Erode by around 20% and 40% respectively. Sowing commences with the onset of monsoon in the month of June. Demand from the domestic and overseas market is present in small quantity due to appreciation in rupee and subsequent decline in overseas orders,” she said. (Source: Financial Express)
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